From 2003 to 2015
President Buhari contested election 4 times and below is the outcome of those
elections:
2003 against Obasanjo
from South West
Obasanjo (PDP)
24,456,140
Buhari (APP)
12,710,022
2007 against Yar'Adua
from same state and Fulani
Yar'Adua (PDP)
24,638,063
Buhari (ANPP)
6,605,299
Atiku (AC)
2,638,848
2011 against Jonathan
from South South
Jonathan (PDP)
22,495,185
Buhari (CPC)
12,214,853
2015 against Jonathan
from South South
Buhari
15,424,921
Jonathan
12,853,162.
From the figures
above, it is clear that Buhari has a cult like followership of between 12 to 13
million voters.
But what happened in
2007? Buhari contested against Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, a fellow Fulani from the
same state. Atiku also a Fulani and the then incumbent vice president was
also in the race. As a result, his votes from his cult follower, mostly Fulani
Muslims were shared by Yar'Adua and Atiku.
Fast forward to 2015,
Buhari added 2,571,759 votes to his followers to score a total of 15,424,921
votes to defeat the incumbent President Jonathan, a south south christian. Also
recall that Jonathan was perceived as an usurper of the tenure of the North who
leveraged on the death of Yar'Adua to deny the North from completing their term
of 8 years. So, by fire by force, he must be booted out.
Hence the alliance
between Tinubu, the self acclaimed leader of the South West, and the North that
wanted the return of power to the region so badly. So, they came up with the
mantra of CHANGE.
Power returned to the
North in 2015 under Buhari. Three year plus down the line, Buhari has not been
able to steer the nation towards the path of security of lives and property.
Nothing to show for the economy. There has been increased poverty, hunger, and
bloodbath. And people are getting disenchanted. These 3 million voters that
gave him the presidency have already given up on him, particularly due to his
body language and excuses for the murderous Fulani herdsmen. Head or tail, he
will surely lose these voters. These are the voters that will decide Buhari's
fate in 2019!
If the PDP fields a
well educated Fulani Northern Muslim like Buhari, he (Buhari) will definitely
stand no chance of winning the 2019 presidential election because some of his
cult followers will be comfortable with another Northern Fulani Muslim.
Another factor is the
historical antecedents.
Every 20 years in the
history of Nigeria, there has been electoral watersheds that ushered in
new regimes.
In 1959, the election
ushered in Independence regime for Nigeria.
In 1979, the election
ushered in civilian administration that took over from the military.
In 1999, the election
also ushered in the present civilian government.
Take it or leave, the
2019 election, another 20 years will usher in a new administration of young and
intellectual leaders that will drive the country towards the path of
development.
PDP should take note
of this. History and statistics don't lie.
Obioma Nwogu
Political Analyst
Lagos, Nigeria
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