CRITICAL DECIDING FACTORS OF 2019 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

From 2003 to 2015 President Buhari contested election 4 times and below is the outcome of those elections:

2003 against Obasanjo from South West 

Obasanjo (PDP)            24,456,140 

Buhari (APP)                  12,710,022

2007 against Yar'Adua from same state and Fulani 

Yar'Adua  (PDP)                         24,638,063

Buhari  (ANPP)                             6,605,299

Atiku (AC)                                       2,638,848

2011 against Jonathan  from South South

Jonathan (PDP)                              22,495,185

Buhari (CPC)                                    12,214,853

2015 against Jonathan from South South

Buhari                                                15,424,921

Jonathan                                            12,853,162. 

From the figures above, it is clear that Buhari has a cult like followership of between 12 to 13 million voters. 

But what happened in 2007? Buhari contested against Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, a fellow Fulani from the same state. Atiku also a Fulani and the then  incumbent vice president was also in the race. As a result, his votes from his cult follower, mostly Fulani Muslims were shared by Yar'Adua and Atiku. 

Fast forward to 2015, Buhari added 2,571,759 votes to his followers to score a total of 15,424,921 votes to defeat the incumbent President Jonathan, a south south christian. Also recall that Jonathan was perceived as an usurper of the tenure of the North who leveraged on the death of Yar'Adua to deny the North from completing their term of 8 years. So, by fire by force, he must be booted out. 

Hence the alliance between Tinubu, the self acclaimed leader of the South West, and the North that wanted the return of power to the region so badly. So, they came up with the mantra of CHANGE. 

Power returned to the North in 2015 under Buhari. Three year plus down the line, Buhari has not been able to steer the nation towards the path of security of lives and property. Nothing to show for the economy. There has been increased poverty, hunger, and bloodbath. And people are getting disenchanted. These 3 million voters that gave him the presidency have already given up on him, particularly due to his body language and excuses for the murderous Fulani herdsmen. Head or tail, he will surely lose these voters. These are the voters that will decide Buhari's fate in 2019! 

If the PDP fields a well educated Fulani Northern Muslim like Buhari, he (Buhari) will definitely stand no chance of winning the 2019 presidential election because some of his cult followers will be comfortable with another Northern Fulani Muslim. 

Another factor is the historical antecedents. 

Every 20 years in the history of Nigeria, there has been electoral watersheds that ushered in  new regimes. 

In 1959, the election ushered in Independence regime for Nigeria. 

In 1979, the election ushered in civilian administration that took over from the military. 

In 1999, the election also ushered in the present civilian government. 

Take it or leave, the 2019 election, another 20 years will usher in a new administration of young and intellectual leaders that will drive the country towards the path of development. 

PDP should take note of this. History and statistics don't lie. 

Obioma Nwogu

Political Analyst

Lagos, Nigeria